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Panamax/Cape freight market. Atlantic basin // week 46

18.11.16
12:44

This week, Panamax/Kamsarmax rates are rapidly growing in the North Atlantic. Transatlantic segment has been the first to strengthen, as positive trends outlined in the end of last week. The increase in relevant rates is caused by the shortage of vessels open in Europe for prompt dates, as well as by stronger demand for Panamax/Kamsarmax fleet to be chartered for shipments of US coal, as well as for transportation of coal, iron ore and grain from the ports of the Baltic, Black Seas and the Continent. In these circumstances, the time-charter rates for such carriers bss TARV have soared to $12.5-13.5k daily, and many brokers expect the rates to go up further during the week. According to ISM sources, the contract for a Kamsarmax vessel bss dely Bilbao via USG & EMed redel Gibraltar was negotiated at $16-17k daily, though has never been concluded. Closer to the middle of the week, the deal for a Kamsarmax carrier bss dely Gibraltar via USEC & EMed redel Gibraltar has been signed at $16.5k daily. Another contract for a 78,000 dwt ship bss dely USG redel Skaw-Passero with November 24-28 laycan dates has been concluded at $14k daily + $400k bb. A 75,000 t lot of coal from the Mississippi ports to Rotterdam with November 25-30 laycan dates has been fixed at $16.5/t. The rates for cargo transportation to the Far East have also grown significantly following the transatlantic segment. Major players report growing number of grain offers for transportation from the Gulf of Mexico ports with late November-December laycan dates. The time-charter for Panamax/Kamsarmax fleet bss dely Gibraltar via USG redel Spore-Japan is now quoted at $15.5-16.5k daily and is likely to grow further this week. In the beginning of the week, the rates for Panamax/Kamsarmax vessels bss dely USG redel Spore-Japan via COGH amounted to $11.5k daily + $350k bb; closer to the middle of the week, a Kamsarmax carrier has been chartered at $12k daily + $400k bb (the ship is moving in ballast via the Cape of Good Hope). Another deal for an eco-Kamsarmax vessel bss dely USG redel Spore-Japan via COGH with late November laycan dates has been signed at $13k daily + $500k bb. A 79,000 dwt ship (IFO consumption of 29.5 t per day at 12.5 knots) has been chartered at $13.5k daily + $550k bb bss dely USG redel Spore-Japan via COGH with November 21-30 laycan dates. The deal for a Post-Panamax carrier bss retro dely passing COGH via USG redel Spore-Japan (via COGH) has been signed at $8.5k daily + $350k bb. The time-charter for a Kamsarmax vessel bss dely passing COGH via USG redel Spore-Japan (via COGH) is negotiated at $8k daily + $300k bb. The contract for a Panamax ship bss dely passing COGH via USG redel Spore-Japan is negotiated at $8.25k daily + $325k bb. On the voyage-basis, carrying a Panamax-lot of grain from the Gulf of Mexico ports to China via the Panama Canal with November laycan dates costs $32-33/t, via the Cape of Good Hope – about $31-32/t.

Given the fact that the US charterers express more interest for vessels passing the Cape of Good Hope, the costs of Panamax/Kamsarmax cargo transportation from South America have started to go up. In the beginning of the week, the time-charter for LME carriers bss dely ECSA redel Spore-Japan was quoted by brokers at $7.5-7.8k daily + $250-280k bb, that for Kamsarmax fleet with good specs– at $8k daily + $350k bb. However, the relevant rates have started to grow rapidly closer to the middle of the week. Thus, a Kamsarmax vessel has been already chartered at $10k daily + $500k bb bss dely ECSA redel Spore-Japan (the ship is moving in ballast from the east coast of India). The rates for Panamax/Kamsarmax carriers bss dely India-Singapore via ECSA redel Spore-Japan amount to $8.5-9.5k daily, those bss dely COGH via ECSA redel Spore-Japan – to $8.5k daily + $300k bb. Closer to the middle of the week, the deal for a 76,000 dwt vessel (IFO consumption of 28 t per day at 12 knots) bss dely passing COGH via ECSA redel Spore-Japan with late November laycan dates has been already signed at $8.75k daily + $325k bb. A Kamsarmax carrier has been chartered at $10.5k daily bss retro dely WCI via ECSA option USG redel Spore-Japan. According to ISM sources, the contract for a Kamsarmax ship bss dely Continent via ECSA redel Spore-Japan is even negotiated at $20k daily, while last week, the deals bss dely Gibraltar via ECSA redel Spore-Japan were negotiated within $12-13k daily. On the voyage-basis, carrying a Panamax-lot of agricultural products from Brazil to China is quoted by brokers at $19-20/ton average. The time-charter for Panamax/Kamsarmax fleet bss dely ECSA redel Skaw-Passero is quoted at about $12-14k daily. The deal for a Panamax vessel bss dely Gibraltar via Kamsar redel Spain with November laycan dates has been signed at $12.5k daily.

In the Black Sea, Panamax owners now want to get $16-17k daily bss dely Passero via BlSea redel Spore-Japan. Meanwhile, there are almost no available vessels in the eastern Mediterranean. In the Baltic Sea, the transportation cost of 70,000 t of coal from Murmansk to Rotterdam has risen to $7-8/t. In the beginning of the week, the deal for shipment of 70,000 t of coal from Riga to Ijmuiden was fixed at $7/t. The contract for a 75,000 dwt carrier bss dely Aughinish via Murmansk redel Canakkale has been concluded at $12.75k daily. The vessel of just over 77,000 dwt has been chartered at $12.25k daily bss dely Immingham via Baltic redel ARA. The deal for a Panamax carrier chartered for transportation of fertilizers bss dely UK via Baltic redel China has been signed at $14k daily; similar ship has been chartered at $15k daily bss dely Ghent via Baltic redel China.

The situation is also favorable for Capesize owners in the basin. Despite the fact that players report a slight slowdown in iron ore shipments from Brazil, the charterers are not able to state their terms. Carrying a Capesize-lot of iron ore from Tubarao to Qingdao with late November laycan dates is quoted by brokers at $12-12.25/t. Closer to the middle of the week, the contract for transportation of 160,000 t of the cargo from Tubarao to Qingdao with December 20-30 laycan dates has been concluded at $13/t. The deal for shipment of 160,000 t of iron ore from Canada to China with late November-early December laycan dates has been signed at $18.95/t. Given the continuing shortage of such fleet open in Europe and regular new cargo offers, the relevant rates keep steadily growing. Thus, the contract for transportation of a Capesize-lot of iron ore from Ponta da Madeira to France has been concluded at $10.25/t. The deal for shipment of a Capesize-lot of iron ore from Canada to Turkey (two discharge ports) with December 12-21 laycan dates has been signed at $11.9/t. A 160,000 t lot of coal from Drummond to Israel with early December laycan dates has been fixed at $11/t, which is equivalent to $10/t on the route Bolivar-Rotterdam, brokers say. A 150,000 t lot of coal from Drummond to Turkey with H1 December laycan dates has been fixed at $10.65/t.

In the short term, the rates may go up further in the North Atlantic due to the expected increase in the offer of grain for shipments with late November-December laycan dates.

The developments in the southern part of the basin will depend on market trends in the North Atlantic.

The situation may worsen for Capesize owners operating on fronthaul shipments. The volume of iron ore at stocks of Chinese ports is already about 108 million t (the highest level in nearly 2 years) and iron ore prices have started to go down in Chinese commodity market. In these circumstances, the import volume of iron ore may decrease, putting pressure on relevant transportation costs. However, many market participants hope that the transatlantic segment will remain strong and will support the Capesize market.

Coal, 70,000t, USG - Rotterdam, $/tonne

Iron ore, 150,000t, Narvik - Rotterdam, $/tonne

Coal, 70,000t, Murmansk - ARA ports, $/tonne

Time-charter-trip rates, $/day

Iron ore, 150,000t, Tubarao - Rotterdam, $/tonne

Iron ore, 60,000t, Kokkola - Immingham, $/tonne

Iron ore, 70,000t, Yuzhny - northern ports of China, $/tonne


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Current Panamax TCT rates bss APS delivery

ECSA - Far East 9-10k daily +500k bb
USG - Far East 13k daily +500k bb
Continent - Far East 15-16k daily
BlSea - SEA 16-17k daily
BlSea - USG/USEC 5k daily
Transatlantic round voyage trip 12-13k daily

Spot/ppt freight assessments on main trade routes ex Atlantic Ocean ports

Cargo Lot Loading port Country Discharging port Country Given load rate Given disch rate Rate, $/tonne w-o-w
iron ore 170,000t Seven Islands Canada Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 50000c 50000c 8 +2
iron ore 160,000t Tubarao Brazil Qingdao China 50000c 50000c 12.5-13 +1.5
iron ore 150,000t Tubarao Brazil Gijon Spain 50000c 35000c 8.5-9 +2
iron ore 150,000t Tubarao Brazil Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 50000c 50000c 9 +2
iron ore 70,000t Baltimore USA Vlissingen Netherlands 25000c 25000c 12 +2
scrap (sf 65-70`) 40-50,000t 1 port Canada Marmara Sea ports Turkey 8000c 6000c 24-25 +2
coal 150,000t Puerto Bolivar Colombia Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 50000c 25000c 9-9.5 +2
coal 150,000t Puerto Bolivar Colombia Mediterranean Sea ports Spain 50000c 25000c 9.5-10 +2
coal 70,000t Baltimore USA Gangavaram India 25000c 20000c 22 +2
coal 70,000t Port-Cartier Canada Hamburg Germany 30000c 25000c 10-11 +2
coal 70,000t Puerto Bolivar Colombia Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 30000c 25000c 11-11.5 +2
coal 70,000t Atlantic Coast USA Rotterdam Netherlands 30000c 25000c 11-12 +2
coal 70,000t Atlantic Coast USA Dunkirk France 30000c 25000c 12-12.5 +2
coal 70,000t Mississippi River ports USA Rotterdam Netherlands 25000c 25000c 16-16.5 n/a
coal 70,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Hamburg Germany 25000c 25000c 13 +2
coal 70,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Immingham UK 25000c 25000c 12.5-13 +2
coal 70,000t Mobile USA Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 25000c 25000c 13.5-14 +2.5
coal 70,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Yuzhny Ukraine 25000c 20000c 16.5-17 +2
coal 70,000t East Coast USA Yuzhny Ukraine 30000c 20000c 15-15.5 +2
coal 70,000t Drummond Colombia La Spezia Italy 30000c 20000c 12.5-13 +2
coal 70,000t Drummond Colombia Iskenderun Turkey 30000c 20000c 13.5-14 +2
coal 70,000t Puerto Bolivar Colombia Koper Slovenia 30000c 20000c 13-13.5 +2
coal 70,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Koper Slovenia 25000c 20000c 15 +2
coal 70,000t New Orleans USA Brindisi Italy 25000c 15000c 17 +2
coal 70,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Tarragona Spain 25000c 20000c 12.5-13 +2
coal 70,000t Atlantic Coast USA Jorf Lasfar Morocco 30000c 15000c 11.5-12 +2
coal 70,000t West Coast Canada West Coast Italy 30000c 20000c 19.5-20 +2
coal 70,000t Atlantic Coast USA Praia Mole Brazil 30000c 15000c 9 +1
maize (sf 52') 55,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Alexandria Egypt 10000x 5000x 20-21 +2
maize (sf 52') 60,000t Santos Brazil Northen ports China 8000x 8000x 20 +1.5
maize (sf 52') 60,000t Santos Brazil Southern ports China 8000x 8000x 19-20 +1.5
maize (sf 52') 55,000t New Orleans USA Northern ports China 10000x 8000x 33 +3
maize (sf 52') 55,000t New Orleans USA Southern ports China 10000x 8000x 34 +3
soybean meals (sf 54') 60,000t Paranagua Brazil Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 8000x 8000x 16 +1
soybean meals (sf 54') 60,000t Parana River ports Argentina Alexandria Egypt 8000x 5000x 22 +1
soybean (sf 50') 60,000t Paranagua Brazil Ho Chi Minh Vietnam 8000x 6000x 21 +1.5
soybean (sf 50') 55,000t New Orleans USA Northern ports China 10000x 8000x 33.5-34 +3
soybean (sf 50') 55,000t Norfolk USA Northern ports China 10000x 8000x 31 +3
DDGS (sf 60') 45-50,000t Gulf of Mexico USA Northen ports China 10000x 8000x 35-36 +3

Terms FIOS 1/1;

Baltic and Continent

Cargo Lot Loading port Country Discharging port Country Given load rate Given disch rate Rate, $/tonne w-o-w
pig iron 70,000t Ventspils Latvia New Orleans USA 20000c 25000c 10.5-11 +0.75
iron ore 150,000t Narvik Norway Hamburg Germany 40000c 35000c 4-4.5 +0.75
iron ore 80,000t Kirkenes Norway Ijmuiden Netherlands 30000c 25000c 7-8 +1.25
iron ore 70,000t Klaipeda Lithuania Port Talbot UK 25000c 25000c 7.5-8 +1.25
iron ore 60,000t Kokkola Finland Immingham UK 25000c 25000c 7-8 +1.25
iron ore concentrate 60,000t Murmansk Russia Northern ports China 20000c 25000c 24-25 +2
coal 70,000t Murmansk Russia Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 20000c 20000c 7-8 +1.25
coal 70,000t Murmansk Russia Liverpool UK 20000c 20000c 7.5-8 +1.25
coal (sf 41-42`) 70,000t Ust-Luga Russia Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 20000c 20000c 7-7.5 +1.25
coal 70,000t Ventspils Latvia Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 20000c 20000c 7 +1.25
coal 70,000t Ventspils Latvia East Coast UK 20000c 20000c 7-8 +1.25
coal 70,000t Riga Latvia La Coruna Spain 20000c 15000c 7-8 +1.25
coal 70,000t Riga Latvia Rotterdam / Antwerp Netherlands / Belgium 20000c 20000c 7 +1.25
coal 60,000t Ventspils Latvia Ijmuiden Netherlands 20000c 20000c 7-7.5 +1.25
potassium fertilizers 60-70,000t Klaipeda Lithuania 1 port China 12000c 8000c 26 +2
wheat (sf 46-48`) 60,000t Rouen France Alexandria Egypt 12000x 5000x 13-14 +1.25

Terms FIOS 1/1;

Black Sea

Cargo Lot Loading port Country Discharging port Country Given load rate Given disch rate Rate, $/tonne w-o-w
pig iron 70,000t Ilyichevsk Ukraine New Orleans USA 20000c 25000c 12 +0.75
iron ore concentrate 170,000t Yuzhny Ukraine Northern ports China 30000c 30000c 15-16 +1
iron ore concentrate 130,000t Constanta Romania Northern ports China 30000c 30000c 14.5-15 +1
iron ore concentrate 70,000t Yuzhny Ukraine Northern ports China 25000c 25000c 22 +2
pellets 70,000t Yuzhny Ukraine Northern ports China 25000c 25000c 22 +2
sintering ore 60,000t Yuzhny Ukraine Northern ports China 25000c 20000c 22-23 +2
coal 70,000t Yuzhny Ukraine West Coast India 20000c 15000c 19-20 +1.75
coal 70,000t Yuzhny Ukraine Rotterdam Netherlands 20000c 20000c 9.5-10 +0.5
coal 70,000t Yuzhny Ukraine Jorf-Lasfar Morocco 20000c 15000c 9-9.5 +0.5
wheat (sf 46-47`) 60,000t Odessa/ Yuzhny Ukraine Ulsan South Korea 10000x 6000x 27-28 +2.25
wheat (sf 46-47`) 60,000t Odessa Ukraine Alexandria Egypt 10000x 5000x 10-11 +0.75
wheat (sf 46-47`) 60,000t Novorossiysk Russia Alexandria Egypt 10000x 5000x 9.5-10 +0.75
barley (sf 53-54`) 60,000t Odessa Ukraine Jeddah Saudi Arabia 10000x 4000x 21-22 +1.5

Terms FIOS 1/1.

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