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Grain export prices (TEXT ADDED) // week 46

18.11.16
17:26

Export prices for grain, ($/tonne)*

November 18 November 11 w-o-w
Russia
Milling wheat pro 12.5%, FOB Black Sea ports 180 - 182 180 - 184 -1
Milling wheat pro 12.5%, FOB Azov Sea ports 160 - 162 160 - 163 -0.5
Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB Black Sea ports 179 - 181 176 - 179 +2.5
Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB Azov Sea ports 152 - 154 152 - 154 =
Feed wheat, FOB Black Sea ports 168 - 171 163 - 167 +4.5
Feed wheat, FOB Azov Sea ports 142 - 147 142 - 147 =
Feed barley, FOB Black Sea ports 160 - 165 153 - 155 +8.5
Feed barley, FOB Azov Sea ports 138 - 145 134 - 138 +5.5
Feed maize, FOB Black Sea ports 170 - 173 171 - 173 -0.5
Feed maize, FOB Azov Sea ports 153 - 156 153 - 156 =
Ukraine
Milling wheat grade 2, FOB 180 - 182 182 - 184 -2
Milling wheat grade 3, FOB 179 - 181 180 - 182 -1
Feed wheat, FOB 168 - 171 168 - 170 +0.5
Feed barley, FOB 156 - 160 156 - 158 +1
Feed maize, FOB 166 - 171 167 - 171 -0.5
Kazakhstan
Wheat grade 3, FOB Aktau port 170 - 177 170 - 177 =
Wheat grade 3, DAP Saryagash 175 - 180 175 - 180 =
Wheat grade 3, DAP Dina Nurpeisova 165 - 170 165 - 170 =
Wheat grade 4, DAP Saryagash 165 - 175 165 - 175 =
Wheat grade 4, DAP Dina Nurpeisova 155 - 165 155 - 165 =
Feed barley, FOB Aktau port 150 - 160 150 - 160 =
Feed barley, DAP Saryagash 140 - 150 140 - 150 =
Europe
Milling wheat 76/220/11, FOB Rouen 185 - 186 185 - 186 =
Milling wheat, FOB Germany 187 - 189 187 - 189 =
Feed wheat, FOB Rouen 174 - 177 174 - 177 =
Feed barley, FOB Hamburg / Rostock 165 - 166 165 - 166 =
Feed barley, FOB Rouen / La Pallice 157 - 158 156 - 160 -0.5
USA
Milling wheat HRW (FOB US Gulf) 196 197 -1
Milling wheat SRW (FOB US Gulf) 182 182 =
Feed maize (FOB US Gulf) 160 162 -2
South America
Milling wheat pro 12%, FOB UpRiver 167 - 168 166 - 167 +1
Milling wheat pro 10.5%, FOB UpRiver 163 - 164 164 - 165 -1
Feed maize, FOB UpRiver 178 - 179 175 - 180 +1
Feed maize, FOB Paranagua 162 - 165 168 - 169 -5
Australia
Milling wheat, FOB southern ports 194 - 198 198 - 205 -5.5
Milling wheat, FOB western ports 205 - 207 205 - 207 =
Feed barley, FOB southern ports 157 - 162 153 - 157 +4.5
Feed barley, FOB western ports 164 - 166 164 - 166 =

* - offer prices

Export prices for oilseeds, ($/tonne)*

November 18 November 11 w-o-w
Ukraine
Soybeans (FOB) 390 386 - 387 +3.5
USA
Soybeans (FOB US Gulf) 386 392 -6
South America
Soybeans, FOB UpRiver 380 - 382 380 - 382 =
Soybeans, FOB Paranagua 385 - 386 387 - 389 -2.5

* - offer prices

In general, the Russian grain export market stays dull in mid-November. The demand for milling wheat has weakened in major sales markets, pushing the quotes for the commodity down. So, the product with 12.5% protein content is now estimated at $180-182/t FOB Black Sea ($1/t down) and $160- 162/t FOB Azov Sea ($0.5/t down). At the same time, prices for wheat with 11.5% protein content have risen by $2.5/t to $179-181/t FOB deepwater ports. A similar cargo is still offered at $152-154/t FOB Azov Sea terminals. It is worth noting that the quotes for 11.5% pro wheat with shipments in large lots have increased following the upward price trend in other regions, particularly in Ukraine. A similar situation is observed in the segment of feed wheat – the quotes have jumped by $4.5/t to $168-171/t FOB Black Sea, while those have stayed at $142-147/t FOB Azov Sea. A slight improvement in demand for barley has resulted in a significant upturn in quotes. At present, the cargo is offered at $160-165/t FOB Black Sea ($8.5/t up) and $138-145/t FOB Azov Sea ($5.5/t up). Maize exporters are cutting the prices amid stiff competition in the market. So, the quotes for the product with shipments from the Black Sea ports have inched down by $0.5/t to $170-173/t FOB. Meanwhile, the cargo is still available at $153-156/t FOB Azov Sea terminals.

Ukrainian grain traders are making concessions to buyers amid sluggish demand for milling wheat. Prices for wheat grade 2 have sagged by $2/t to $180-182/t FOB and those for wheat grade 3 by $1/t to $179-181/t FOB. Meanwhile, the cargo with 12.5% ​​and 11.5% protein content is offered for sale to the Indian market (which is the most stable at the moment) at not less than $183-185/t FOB. Quotes for feed wheat and barley have inched up by $0.5/t to $168-171/t FOB and by $1/t to $156-160/t FOB respectively due to the limited volumes of these types of grain available for exports. The buying interest in Ukrainian maize is quite lively. The trade in this segment is additionally supported by decreasing prices for the commodity - $0.5/t down to $166-171/t FOB over the week.

Grain cargoes from Kazakhstan are exported at a moderate pace. New contracts are concluded primarily with the traditional buyers. The quotes hold steady. Wheat grade 4 is offered at $165-175/t DAP Saryagash and $155-165/t DAP Dina Nurpeisova station. Barley is estimated at $150-160/t FOB Aktau and $140-150/t DAP Saryagash. Indicative quotes for wheat grade 3 are voiced at $170-177/t FOB Aktau, $175-180/t DAP Saryagash and $165-170/t DAP Dina Nurpeisova station.

A tender for the supply of wheat to Algeria has become a headline of the week in the European grain market. According to the results of the tender, Algeria has acquired a total of 580,000 t of grain. Market players believe that the major volume of the cargo will be supplied from Germany and the Baltic countries; several lots may be shipped from France. Saudi Arabian buyers show some interest in purchasing of German wheat, but no deals have been reported so far. There is still lack of demand for the product from France. Appreciation of the US dollar against the Euro strengthens the competitiveness of grain from the EU, though the commodity exchange quotes are on the rise. As a result, the offer prices hold largely steady. As before, feed wheat is available at $187-189/t FOB German ports and $185-186/t FOB Rouen. Quotes for feed wheat have stayed at $174-177/t FOB Rouen. Prices for French barley have inched down by $0.5/t to $157-158/t FOB Rouen/La Pallice, while those still stand at $165-166/t FOB Hamburg/Rostock.

A total of 93,700 t of barley were exported from the EU countries in November 10-16 compared to 50,800 t in November 3-9. The overall export volume of wheat amounted to only 93,000 t against 297,000 t previous week. Maize exports totaled to 7,400 t compared to 45,600 t previous week.

Also, it should be noted that the permitted supplies of imported maize dropped to 71,000 t in November 10-16 from 230,400 t in November 3-9.

The season of active sales of US grain is coming to an end. China, a key importer of soybeans, is switching to purchases of South American product. Nevertheless, shipments of US soybeans to China can still be called rather frequent, with 610,500 t of the cargo to be moved to this country out of a total of 868,500 t of soybeans shipped from the US this week. Mexico, a major buyer of US maize, has also cut the purchasing volume amid the devaluation of the national currency, caused by concerns about the future policy of the new president of the US. Wheat demand remains low. Stronger dollar is impairing the competitiveness of US grain in foreign markets, impeding the export trade. As a result, the suppliers have to cut offer prices in most cases. So, the quote for soybeans has dropped by $6/t to $386/t FOB. The price for maize has stepped down by $2/t to $160/t FOB. HRW wheat with 12.5% protein content is estimated at $196/t FOB ($1/t down). Only the price for SRW wheat has stayed at the level of last week – the cargo can still be purchased at $182/t FOB.

In November 4-10, the US exporters sold abroad up to 2.2 million tonnes of soybeans (1.9 mt previous week), 1.7 mt of maize (1.3 mt previous week) and 611,000 t of wheat (785,000 t previous week).

Almost 1.7 mt of soybeans, accounting for 77% of the overall sales volume of the product, will be shipped to China. The largest volumes of maize will be headed to Japan (255,500 t), the Dominican Republic (229,300 t), Mexico (164,500 t), Saudi Arabia (140,000 t), Colombia (92,600 t) and Taiwan (85,300 t). A total of 82,800 t of wheat will be supplied to the Philippines. Up to 60,500 t of a similar cargo will be exported to the market of the Dominican Republic. Details of deals for the supply of 433,800 t of maize and 177,800 t of wheat have not been disclosed.

Export trade is moderate in Argentine wheat segment. Large lots of the cargo have been reportedly sold to Bangladesh. With the start of harvesting campaign, quotes for wheat are swayed by concerns about the quality of the product. Market participants predict, however, that prices for the commodity may go down as the collection is gathering pace. At present, milling wheat with 12% protein content is quoted at $167-168/t FOB UpRiver ($1/t up). The product with 12.5% protein content costs $173-174/t on the same basis. It is worth noting that they are the most attractive prices in the world market. Feed wheat of both old and new crop is available at $163-164/t FOB UpRiver. The trade is exceedingly dull in maize segment, but the quotes for the product with spot shipments continue to grow amid the declining stocks. So, the cargo is now available at $178-179/t FOB UpRiver ($1/t up). Maize of the new harvest is offered for shipments in March at $160/t FOB UpRiver. The segment of soybeans is unexciting. Similar to last week, the cargo with the delivery in May is estimated at $380-382/t FOB UpRiver.

Sales of Brazilian soybeans have improved in mid-November. For example, several contracts for the supply of the cargo to China in December have been concluded this week. Similar to the situation in Argentina, the appreciation of the US dollar against the local currency has enhanced the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans in the world market. Prices for the cargo of the new crop have sagged by $2.5/t to $385-386/t FOB Paranagua, coming closer to the price for US product. Trade is zero in maize segment. The indicative spot quotes are voiced at $182-183/t FOB Paranagua. The product of the new harvest is offered at $162-165/t FOB Paranagua ($5/t down).

The demand for Australian ASW wheat has strengthened in mid-November, particularly among the buyers from Indonesia, the Philippines, China and India. It is worth noting, however, that the quality of ASW wheat is slightly poorer than that of the APW product. Some buyers are signing forward deals for the supply of high-quality wheat with shipments in January - May 2017. Excessive precipitation together with rather cool weather in spring in the country is still stirring concerns about the quality of the future harvest of wheat, farmers say. In such circumstances, the price gap between wheat with higher protein content namely APW, AH, etc. and ASW product is extending. For example, APW wheat is now offered at $205-207/t FOB WA and $194-198 FOB SA ($5.5/t down), while ASW product is estimated at $190-193/t FOB WA and $183-186/t FOB SA. Quotes for barley have stayed at $164-166/t FOB WA, while those have added $4.5/t to $157-162/t FOB SA.

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